União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
30.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.7%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
8.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.9%
27.9%
Draw
0-0
9.6%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.9%
41.4%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
12.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
22.8%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+41%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
4º
7º
5º
3
2º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
7 | 34 |
1º
|
44.5% | |
|
9º
|
2 | 32 |
2º
|
22.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
3 | 30 |
3º
|
22% | |
|
4º
|
4 | 28 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
4 | 26 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
1º
|
7 | 23 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
3 | 22 |
7º
|
14% | |
|
6º
|
4 | 22 |
8º
|
14.5% | |
|
3º
|
6 | 19 |
9º
|
22.5% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 14 |
10º
|
53% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
33% | 69.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
67% | 30.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União Santarém
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2025 |
ACA
0 - 4
USA
49%
26%
25%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2025 |
USA
2 - 0
LUS
55%
24%
21%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | +1 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
CAL
0 - 1
USA
32%
27%
41%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 2025 |
OLI
0 - 2
USA
31%
26%
43%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
USA
1 - 2
SPC
56%
25%
19%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Lusitano Évora 1911
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
OEL
0 - 2
ALE
60%
22%
18%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
ALE
1 - 1
VSC
62%
24%
15%
|
64 | 53 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2025 |
ALE
2 - 1
OEL
40%
28%
31%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | +1 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
AMO
1 - 2
ALE
38%
28%
34%
|
62 | 54 | 8 | +1 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
FAT
0 - 1
ALE
34%
27%
39%
|
62 | 51 | 11 | 0 |