Thun vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
39.3%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.7%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.2%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
36.3%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.6%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2010 |
YVE
3 - 3
THU
31%
26%
43%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2010 |
THU
1 - 1
WOH
72%
17%
11%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | -1 |
| 18 Apr. 2010 |
SER
2 - 1
THU
37%
25%
38%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2010 |
FCV
0 - 1
THU
31%
25%
44%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2010 |
THU
2 - 2
BIE
60%
22%
19%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2010 |
LUG
4 - 1
LAU
59%
23%
19%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2010 |
LUG
2 - 0
WIN
57%
22%
21%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | +1 |
| 19 Apr. 2010 |
KRI
1 - 1
LUG
28%
24%
48%
|
67 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2010 |
LUG
2 - 1
WOH
72%
18%
11%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2010 |
SER
2 - 0
LUG
27%
24%
49%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | -1 |