Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.8%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.6%
15.6%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2005 |
YOB
2 - 4
THU
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2005 |
FCA
1 - 7
THU
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2005 |
THU
2 - 1
NEX
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
SCH
0 - 1
THU
26%
27%
47%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2005 |
GCZ
1 - 0
THU
56%
23%
22%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2005 |
FCA
1 - 2
FCL
59%
20%
21%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2005 |
FCA
1 - 7
THU
43%
26%
31%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2005 |
FCA
2 - 3
ZUR
39%
26%
35%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2005 |
BAS
4 - 2
FCA
71%
17%
12%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
FCA
2 - 3
GCZ
38%
25%
37%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |