Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.9%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.5%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
30.6%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2003 |
ZBR
1 - 1
THU
42%
26%
32%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2003 |
THU
2 - 3
ZBR
57%
23%
21%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2003 |
WIL
2 - 2
THU
55%
22%
23%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2003 |
THU
4 - 2
YOB
38%
25%
37%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2003 |
BAS
4 - 0
THU
76%
15%
9%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2003 |
SIO
3 - 1
FCA
37%
26%
38%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2003 |
FCA
4 - 2
FCL
50%
24%
26%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 May. 2003 |
FCV
3 - 6
FCA
40%
26%
34%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2003 |
FCA
2 - 0
DEL
61%
22%
16%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | +1 |
| 04 May. 2003 |
KRI
1 - 4
FCA
42%
26%
32%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |