Swift vs ARC Alphense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
54.5%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.1%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
22%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22%
23.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-38%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
38
2º
16º
10º
32
2º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 54 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
51 | 51 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 46 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
52.5% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 42 |
8º
|
52.5% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 35 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
32 | 32 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
|
14º
|
32 | 32 |
14º
|
30.5% | |
|
15º
|
30 | 31 |
15º
|
69.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 20 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Swift
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
PUR
1 - 1
SWI
44%
24%
33%
|
44 | 42 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
SWI
2 - 3
SVH
52%
23%
25%
|
45 | 43 | 2 | -1 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
BOL
0 - 0
SWI
18%
22%
60%
|
45 | 34 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
SWI
0 - 1
HOL
60%
21%
19%
|
46 | 41 | 5 | -1 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
HED
1 - 1
SWI
23%
22%
55%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
ARC Alphense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
ARC
2 - 1
HUI
29%
23%
48%
|
39 | 46 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
AJA
3 - 1
ARC
64%
20%
17%
|
41 | 47 | 6 | -2 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
ARC
0 - 0
SJC
49%
23%
28%
|
41 | 39 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
DHS
1 - 1
ARC
27%
22%
51%
|
41 | 33 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
ARC
0 - 1
JOS
40%
24%
36%
|
42 | 44 | 2 | -1 |