Horn vs Baumgarten analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
69.3%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.7%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.9%
12.7%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Horn
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2010 |
OST
2 - 2
SVH
43%
25%
32%
|
41 | 37 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2010 |
SVH
3 - 0
WUR
78%
15%
8%
|
41 | 23 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2010 |
SVH
2 - 3
FCW
48%
25%
27%
|
42 | 45 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Nov. 2009 |
FCW
1 - 0
SVH
54%
23%
23%
|
44 | 45 | 1 | -2 |
| 06 Nov. 2009 |
SVH
0 - 0
SCH
68%
19%
13%
|
44 | 36 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Baumgarten
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2010 |
BAU
1 - 1
FCW
27%
26%
47%
|
31 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2010 |
SCH
2 - 0
BAU
51%
25%
24%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2010 |
BAU
3 - 3
NEU
35%
25%
40%
|
31 | 39 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2009 |
NEU
0 - 0
BAU
68%
18%
13%
|
31 | 40 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2009 |
BAU
1 - 1
MAT
47%
23%
31%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | 0 |