Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.7%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.9%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.2%
22.1%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.4%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1953 |
ARS
3 - 1
STO
83%
11%
6%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1953 |
BPO
1 - 1
STO
65%
19%
16%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1953 |
STO
1 - 0
CHA
41%
24%
35%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1953 |
STO
2 - 0
TOT
40%
26%
35%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 1953 |
WOL
3 - 0
STO
73%
15%
12%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1953 |
DER
5 - 0
MAC
62%
19%
20%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1953 |
LIV
1 - 1
DER
55%
22%
23%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1953 |
DER
1 - 1
BPO
42%
24%
34%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1953 |
DER
3 - 3
MID
60%
19%
21%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1953 |
BPO
2 - 1
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |