St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
13.7%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
3.4%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.1%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.4%
68.8%
Win probability
2.42
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.2%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
20.1%
0-3
7.8%
1-4
4.7%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
13.7%
0-4
4.7%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
7.5%
0-5
2.3%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
3.4%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
17º
18º
18º
6
1º
12º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
10º
|
6 | 69 |
1º
|
46.5% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 65 |
2º
|
26.5% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 59 |
3º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 58 |
4º
|
11% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 58 |
5º
|
8% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 58 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 54 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
1º
|
15 | 52 |
8º
|
8% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 48 |
9º
|
11.5% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 47 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 47 |
11º
|
8.5% | |
|
7º
|
7 | 40 |
12º
|
13.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 38 |
13º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 37 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 33 |
16º
|
15% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 29 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
40.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
St. Pauli II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2025 |
BRE
1 - 0
STP
45%
24%
31%
|
60 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2025 |
STP
0 - 5
DRO
26%
26%
48%
|
60 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
FOR
4 - 3
STP
34%
24%
43%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2025 |
BRE
2 - 0
STP
40%
25%
36%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
STP
3 - 4
DRO
30%
28%
43%
|
61 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Werder Bremen II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
WER
1 - 5
WEI
81%
13%
7%
|
74 | 57 | 17 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
ADF
1 - 4
WER
21%
19%
61%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2025 |
OSN
2 - 2
WER
33%
22%
45%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2025 |
SPO
3 - 2
WER
19%
18%
63%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
BOR
3 - 0
WER
30%
22%
48%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |