Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.9%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
7%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
27.2%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.2%
33.9%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2009 |
BIR
1 - 0
SOU
57%
23%
20%
|
67 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2009 |
IPS
0 - 3
SOU
57%
23%
20%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Feb. 2009 |
SOU
1 - 0
CAR
31%
28%
42%
|
65 | 78 | 13 | +1 |
| 21 Feb. 2009 |
SOU
3 - 1
PNE
34%
28%
39%
|
64 | 73 | 9 | +1 |
| 14 Feb. 2009 |
BRI
2 - 0
SOU
54%
24%
22%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2009 |
DER
2 - 1
BRI
53%
25%
22%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2009 |
DER
2 - 2
SWA
43%
26%
32%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2009 |
DON
2 - 1
DER
35%
29%
36%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2009 |
NTT
1 - 3
DER
43%
27%
31%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
DER
4 - 1
BPO
60%
23%
17%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | +1 |