Sergipe vs Náutico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14.1%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.8%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
4%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.6%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
67.3%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.2%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.1%
0-3
7.9%
1-4
4.2%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13%
0-4
4.5%
1-5
1.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.7%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sergipe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2010 |
SER
0 - 2
VIT
15%
23%
62%
|
43 | 78 | 35 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2010 |
ARN
4 - 1
SER
70%
18%
12%
|
44 | 56 | 12 | -1 |
| 15 Jul. 2010 |
SER
1 - 0
CSA
40%
26%
33%
|
42 | 50 | 8 | +2 |
| 08 Jul. 2010 |
BOT
4 - 0
SER
57%
22%
21%
|
43 | 51 | 8 | -1 |
| 04 Jul. 2010 |
SER
1 - 1
SAN
30%
25%
45%
|
42 | 55 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Náutico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2010 |
ASA
2 - 0
NAU
36%
25%
39%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2010 |
IFC
2 - 1
NAU
42%
25%
33%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Sep. 2010 |
NAU
1 - 2
SAO
44%
27%
29%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2010 |
ARN
2 - 1
NAU
27%
25%
48%
|
67 | 57 | 10 | -1 |
| 22 Sep. 2010 |
NAU
1 - 0
FFL
32%
27%
42%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | +1 |