AFCON Qualifying Preliminary Round Final
Sao Tome and Principe vs Mauritius analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.5%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
31.7%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sao Tome and Principe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2021 |
GHA
3 - 1
STP
90%
8%
2%
|
40 | 82 | 42 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2021 |
STP
0 - 2
SDN
12%
19%
69%
|
41 | 63 | 22 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2020 |
STP
2 - 4
RSA
6%
15%
79%
|
41 | 80 | 39 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2020 |
RSA
2 - 0
STP
85%
12%
3%
|
41 | 80 | 39 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2019 |
STP
0 - 1
GHA
8%
18%
74%
|
41 | 83 | 42 | 0 |
Matches
Mauritius
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2022 |
NPL
1 - 0
MUS
40%
25%
35%
|
40 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2022 |
NPL
1 - 0
MUS
35%
25%
40%
|
41 | 38 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 2019 |
STP
2 - 1
MUS
36%
23%
41%
|
42 | 41 | 1 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2019 |
MUS
1 - 3
STP
46%
23%
31%
|
43 | 39 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2019 |
MOZ
2 - 0
MUS
67%
21%
12%
|
43 | 59 | 16 | 0 |