Italy vs Iceland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.2%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
6.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.7%
3-0
12%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.3%
2-0
17%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.3%
1-0
16%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.2%
17%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
17%
6.8%
Win probability
0.46
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
5.5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 2005 |
ITA
2 - 0
SCO
70%
20%
10%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2005 |
ITA
2 - 0
RUS
63%
22%
15%
|
97 | 91 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2004 |
ITA
1 - 0
FIN
76%
17%
7%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2004 |
ITA
4 - 3
BLR
91%
8%
1%
|
97 | 80 | 17 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2004 |
SVN
1 - 0
ITA
20%
29%
51%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Iceland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 2005 |
CRO
4 - 0
ISL
71%
19%
10%
|
81 | 92 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2004 |
ISL
1 - 4
SWE
19%
26%
55%
|
81 | 94 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2004 |
MLT
0 - 0
ISL
25%
25%
51%
|
81 | 59 | 22 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2004 |
HUN
3 - 2
ISL
65%
21%
14%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2004 |
ISL
1 - 3
BGR
32%
29%
39%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | -1 |