Santa Maria vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
5.5%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.6%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
1%
1-0
2.4%
2-1
1.6%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
<0%
+1
4.4%
13%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
13%
81.4%
Win probability
2.57
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
21.4%
0-2
14.9%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.9%
0-3
12.8%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0%
-3
17.8%
0-4
8.2%
1-5
2.2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
10.7%
0-5
4.2%
1-6
1%
2-7
0.1%
-5
5.3%
0-6
1.8%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0%
-6
2.2%
0-7
0.7%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.8%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0.1%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santa Maria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2013 |
VIA
0 - 0
SAN
54%
23%
23%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2013 |
SAN
0 - 2
BRA
49%
24%
27%
|
35 | 36 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
OSL
2 - 0
SAN
50%
26%
24%
|
36 | 40 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Sep. 2013 |
SAN
4 - 1
CES
52%
23%
25%
|
35 | 32 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2013 |
SAN
0 - 2
FAF
28%
26%
46%
|
37 | 47 | 10 | -2 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2013 |
NAC
3 - 0
SPB
26%
26%
48%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
RIO
0 - 3
NAC
35%
27%
39%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 0
ACA
61%
22%
17%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 1
ARO
70%
18%
11%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2013 |
BEL
2 - 3
NAC
25%
25%
50%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |