PFC vs Excelsior .20 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
10.2%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.2%
1-0
3.6%
2-1
3%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.5%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.2%
72.6%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
0-1
11.3%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.6%
0-2
12.9%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.6%
0-3
9.8%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.6%
0-4
5.6%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.7%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.3%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
PFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
SJC
5 - 5
PFC
90%
7%
3%
|
12 | 32 | 20 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
PFC
0 - 1
VOC
11%
18%
71%
|
12 | 31 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior .20
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
EXC
0 - 1
FCB
35%
23%
42%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
NIE
1 - 2
EXC
48%
23%
30%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | +1 |
| 13 May. 2012 |
PAP
0 - 1
EXC
18%
21%
62%
|
30 | 18 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
EXC
1 - 0
NIE
38%
24%
38%
|
29 | 34 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
EXC
0 - 2
SJC
38%
23%
39%
|
31 | 33 | 2 | -2 |