Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.8%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.1%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.2%
16%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
6º
3º
22
4º
11º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penybont
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2022 |
PEN
1 - 2
AAF
87%
9%
4%
|
65 | 33 | 32 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
NEW
2 - 3
PEN
46%
26%
29%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
CON
2 - 0
PEN
43%
27%
30%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
PEN
3 - 2
HAV
51%
24%
25%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | +1 |
| 27 Aug. 2022 |
PEN
2 - 1
FLI
52%
24%
24%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2022 |
CAR
2 - 2
ABE
63%
21%
17%
|
57 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2022 |
ABE
2 - 1
CON
31%
27%
42%
|
56 | 67 | 11 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
ABE
1 - 4
BAL
29%
26%
46%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
ABE
0 - 2
TNS
28%
25%
47%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2022 |
PON
2 - 1
ABE
31%
26%
44%
|
58 | 49 | 9 | -1 |