Penafiel vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.2%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.2%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.1%
15.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 2000 |
SAN
2 - 1
PEN
47%
25%
28%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2000 |
PEN
1 - 0
RIO
50%
25%
25%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2000 |
SPC
2 - 3
PEN
25%
27%
48%
|
63 | 49 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2000 |
PEN
1 - 1
SCF
65%
21%
15%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2000 |
NAV
3 - 3
PEN
40%
26%
34%
|
63 | 56 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2000 |
NAC
3 - 2
FCM
44%
25%
31%
|
53 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2000 |
UNI
2 - 1
NAC
44%
26%
30%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | -1 |
| 17 May. 1998 |
FEI
1 - 1
NAC
58%
23%
18%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1998 |
NAC
1 - 1
FEL
49%
26%
25%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1998 |
PEN
3 - 2
NAC
61%
23%
17%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | 0 |