Paulista vs Náutico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.6%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
19.7%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May. 2006 |
VIL
2 - 1
PAU
34%
27%
39%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2006 |
PAU
0 - 1
AVA
66%
21%
13%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | -1 |
| 23 May. 2006 |
GUA
3 - 1
PAU
31%
28%
41%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2006 |
PAU
1 - 1
MAR
64%
21%
15%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2006 |
CEA
0 - 2
PAU
45%
26%
30%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Náutico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 May. 2006 |
CRB
1 - 2
NAU
37%
27%
36%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2006 |
NAU
2 - 0
POR
63%
21%
16%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2006 |
REM
0 - 0
NAU
43%
25%
32%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2006 |
NAU
2 - 1
CEA
49%
24%
26%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2006 |
NAU
2 - 3
VIL
58%
22%
20%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | -1 |