Paulista vs Guaraní II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.1%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.9%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
17.3%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+96%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
PAU
0 - 1
XVD
18%
23%
58%
|
40 | 57 | 17 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
RIO
0 - 0
PAU
54%
24%
22%
|
40 | 44 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
PAU
0 - 1
PRI
22%
28%
51%
|
40 | 60 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
PAU
4 - 2
SAO
24%
27%
50%
|
38 | 53 | 15 | +2 |
| 17 Jun. 2025 |
GSP
2 - 1
PAU
20%
21%
59%
|
40 | 17 | 23 | -2 |
Matches
Guaraní II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
GSP
1 - 0
RIO
17%
19%
64%
|
21 | 44 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
SAO
0 - 0
GSP
68%
19%
13%
|
20 | 52 | 32 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
GSP
1 - 2
XVD
13%
20%
67%
|
21 | 57 | 36 | -1 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
PRI
4 - 3
GSP
71%
18%
11%
|
21 | 60 | 39 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2025 |
GSP
2 - 1
PAU
20%
21%
59%
|
17 | 40 | 23 | +4 |