Paulista vs Ceará analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.1%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
18.7%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paulista
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May. 2004 |
SAN
1 - 1
PAU
45%
26%
29%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2004 |
PAU
1 - 0
SAO
72%
17%
11%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2004 |
PAU
3 - 1
MOG
78%
14%
8%
|
71 | 57 | 14 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2004 |
REM
2 - 2
PAU
46%
26%
28%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2004 |
PAU
3 - 1
JEC
70%
18%
12%
|
71 | 62 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 2004 |
CEA
1 - 1
BRA
46%
26%
27%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2004 |
NAU
1 - 3
CEA
56%
23%
21%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | +1 |
| 14 May. 2004 |
CEA
2 - 1
BAH
32%
26%
42%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2004 |
SAN
2 - 0
CEA
59%
23%
18%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2004 |
CEA
1 - 0
MOG
71%
18%
11%
|
69 | 58 | 11 | 0 |