Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.5%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
6%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.1%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.9%
19.6%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1973 |
BIR
1 - 0
NEW
40%
27%
33%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 1973 |
EVE
1 - 1
NEW
41%
28%
31%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1973 |
NEW
3 - 2
MUD
57%
23%
20%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1973 |
LEI
1 - 0
NEW
34%
29%
37%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 1973 |
NEW
2 - 1
STO
62%
22%
16%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1973 |
DER
1 - 1
ARS
53%
24%
23%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 1973 |
DER
0 - 0
LEE
37%
27%
35%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1973 |
SHE
3 - 0
DER
47%
27%
26%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Nov. 1973 |
IPS
3 - 0
DER
47%
28%
26%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1973 |
DER
1 - 2
QPR
74%
16%
10%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |