Nacional vs Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.9%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
2.1%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
53.3%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
16.3%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.3%
0-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 2
MOR
71%
19%
10%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
VST
0 - 2
NAC
34%
25%
41%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2013 |
ACA
2 - 1
NAC
34%
27%
40%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | -1 |
| 12 Jan. 2013 |
NAC
3 - 2
SPB
24%
25%
51%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | +1 |
| 09 Jan. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 0
EST
64%
21%
15%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2013 |
SLB
3 - 0
VST
83%
12%
5%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2013 |
PAÇ
0 - 2
SLB
27%
24%
49%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2013 |
SPB
1 - 2
SLB
45%
25%
30%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2013 |
MOR
0 - 2
SLB
14%
21%
65%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2013 |
ACA
0 - 4
SLB
16%
22%
61%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |