Primeira Liga round 18

Nacional vs Benfica analysis

Nacional Benfica
78 ELO 88
7.9% Tilt 9%
1078º General ELO ranking 77º
19º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
23%
Nacional
23.7%
Draw
53.3%
Benfica

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23%
Win probability
Nacional
1.05
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.9%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
2.1%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
53.3%
Win probability
Benfica
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
16.3%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.3%
0-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Nacional
-1%
+6%
Benfica

ELO progression

Nacional
Benfica
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Nacional
Nacional
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
03 Feb. 2013
NAC
Nacional
1 - 2
Moreirense
MOR
71%
19%
10%
78 65 13 0
27 Jan. 2013
VST
Vitória Setúbal
0 - 2
Nacional
NAC
34%
25%
41%
77 70 7 +1
21 Jan. 2013
ACA
Académica
2 - 1
Nacional
NAC
34%
27%
40%
78 74 4 -1
12 Jan. 2013
NAC
Nacional
3 - 2
Sporting Braga
SPB
24%
25%
51%
77 88 11 +1
09 Jan. 2013
NAC
Nacional
1 - 0
Estoril
EST
64%
21%
15%
77 71 6 0

Matches

Benfica
Benfica
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
03 Feb. 2013
SLB
Benfica
3 - 0
Vitória Setúbal
VST
83%
12%
5%
88 70 18 0
30 Jan. 2013
PAÇ
Paços de Ferreira
0 - 2
Benfica
SLB
27%
24%
49%
88 81 7 0
26 Jan. 2013
SPB
Sporting Braga
1 - 2
Benfica
SLB
45%
25%
30%
88 88 0 0
21 Jan. 2013
MOR
Moreirense
0 - 2
Benfica
SLB
14%
21%
65%
88 66 22 0
17 Jan. 2013
ACA
Académica
0 - 4
Benfica
SLB
16%
22%
61%
88 75 13 0