Nacional vs Arouca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.2%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.2%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
26.4%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec. 2017 |
LEX
2 - 2
NAC
43%
26%
30%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2017 |
NAC
1 - 1
GFC
61%
23%
17%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | -1 |
| 03 Dec. 2017 |
SAN
1 - 1
NAC
42%
27%
31%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2017 |
NAC
2 - 1
UNM
52%
25%
23%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
ACA
1 - 0
NAC
40%
25%
35%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec. 2017 |
PEN
2 - 0
ARO
35%
29%
36%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2017 |
ARO
2 - 1
LEX
52%
26%
22%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2017 |
BEN
1 - 0
ARO
40%
26%
34%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2017 |
ARO
2 - 0
SAN
50%
27%
23%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
CAL
1 - 1
ARO
10%
19%
71%
|
65 | 44 | 21 | 0 |