Aresimi vs Struga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
21.9%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.5%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
52.9%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
0-1
13%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.2%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
8º
11º
10º
3
4º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
3 | 41 |
1º
|
32% | |
|
1º
|
3 | 36 |
2º
|
12% | |
|
3º
|
3 | 36 |
3º
|
14% | |
|
|
4º
|
3 | 36 |
4º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
0 | 35 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
8º
|
1 | 28 |
6º
|
13.5% | |
|
7º
|
1 | 28 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
6º
|
1 | 27 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 27 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
|
5º
|
1 | 24 |
10º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
0 | 23 |
11º
|
17.5% | |
|
9º
|
0 | 21 |
12º
|
30% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
1% | 11% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1% | 20% |
|
Mid-table
|
24.5% | 54% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
22.5% | 10% |
|
Relegation
|
51% | 5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aresimi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
BAS
1 - 1
ARE
45%
25%
30%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2025 |
ARE
0 - 1
VOR
37%
24%
39%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2025 |
ARE
3 - 0
AKP
36%
24%
40%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2025 |
VAN
0 - 4
ARE
10%
19%
71%
|
55 | 38 | 17 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
ARE
0 - 0
MAK
39%
27%
35%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Struga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
FCS
2 - 0
MAK
60%
24%
17%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2025 |
FCS
3 - 0
OHR
82%
13%
5%
|
65 | 40 | 25 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2025 |
FCS
5 - 3
VOR
57%
22%
21%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
FCS
4 - 0
KFS
53%
24%
23%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
FCS
1 - 1
LLA
33%
24%
43%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | 0 |