Hershey vs First State analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
10%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.3%
1-0
2.8%
2-1
3%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
7%
15.3%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15.3%
74.8%
Win probability
2.58
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.6%
0-2
10.9%
1-3
7.9%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.4%
1-4
5.1%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
15.7%
0-4
6%
1-5
2.6%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0%
-4
9.2%
0-5
3.1%
1-6
1.1%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
4.4%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.8%
0-7
0.5%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.6%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hershey
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2021 |
ATC
6 - 0
HER
88%
9%
3%
|
14 | 39 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2021 |
HER
1 - 3
WCU
6%
12%
82%
|
16 | 40 | 24 | -2 |
| 16 May. 2021 |
ECS
4 - 0
HER
25%
21%
54%
|
17 | 12 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 Jun. 2019 |
FCM
4 - 0
HER
90%
7%
3%
|
17 | 41 | 24 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2019 |
TOR
2 - 2
HER
42%
22%
36%
|
17 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
First State
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2021 |
FST
1 - 2
MON
46%
22%
32%
|
29 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2021 |
WCU
3 - 1
FST
77%
14%
9%
|
29 | 43 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2021 |
FCM
7 - 1
FST
72%
16%
13%
|
30 | 39 | 9 | -1 |