Hard vs Schwaz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
75%
Win probability
2.64
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.6%
4-0
6%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.4%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.8%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
15%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15%
10%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hard
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2009 |
STJ
2 - 1
HAR
40%
24%
36%
|
41 | 37 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2009 |
HAR
2 - 2
WAT
38%
24%
39%
|
40 | 46 | 6 | +1 |
| 22 Aug. 2009 |
HAR
2 - 0
SCR
74%
15%
11%
|
40 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2009 |
ANI
2 - 0
HAR
45%
25%
31%
|
41 | 41 | 0 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2009 |
ALL
2 - 0
HAR
34%
24%
41%
|
43 | 38 | 5 | -2 |
Matches
Schwaz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2009 |
SCH
1 - 2
TSV
51%
23%
26%
|
28 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
SPG
3 - 1
SCH
65%
19%
16%
|
29 | 35 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2009 |
SCH
0 - 2
KUF
32%
23%
45%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2009 |
SCH
0 - 3
WAT
25%
22%
53%
|
33 | 45 | 12 | -3 |
| 08 Aug. 2009 |
BLA
2 - 2
SCH
48%
23%
28%
|
33 | 31 | 2 | 0 |