Q. Europa League Second Round Final
Global 1-2
ND Gorica vs FC Lahti analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
67.7%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
11%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.7%
13.6%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.4%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ND Gorica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2009 |
NKP
2 - 1
GOR
37%
26%
37%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2009 |
GOR
3 - 0
MAR
54%
23%
23%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
CEL
1 - 2
GOR
43%
25%
32%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 May. 2009 |
GOR
2 - 1
NKN
63%
21%
17%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2009 |
DOM
0 - 2
GOR
47%
24%
29%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lahti
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2009 |
FCL
1 - 1
HON
36%
26%
39%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2009 |
DIN
2 - 0
FCL
50%
24%
26%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | -1 |
| 05 Jul. 2009 |
INT
1 - 1
FCL
52%
26%
22%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2009 |
FCL
4 - 1
DIN
53%
25%
23%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 2009 |
FCL
2 - 1
TAM
40%
27%
34%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | 0 |