FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.5%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.3%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
32.7%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
7º
10º
7º
34
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
67 | 84 |
1º
|
67% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 79 |
2º
|
67% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 61 |
3º
|
87.5% | |
|
4º
|
37 | 52 |
4º
|
58.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
34 | 49 |
5º
|
57.5% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 37 |
6º
|
31.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
24 | 36 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 35 |
8º
|
19% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 32 |
9º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 31 |
10º
|
38% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 2% |
|
Mid-table
|
76% | 98% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
14% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
10% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FK Tukums 2000
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2025 |
FKT
1 - 0
AUD
28%
26%
45%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2025 |
FKT
0 - 1
CAR
25%
23%
52%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
RIG
6 - 2
FKT
69%
18%
13%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2025 |
FKT
2 - 1
GRO
47%
23%
30%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
CAR
4 - 0
FKT
62%
20%
18%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 2
LIE
31%
23%
47%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2025 |
LIE
2 - 1
BFC
55%
25%
20%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | -1 |
| 02 Aug. 2025 |
SUP
1 - 1
BFC
45%
26%
29%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2025 |
BFC
2 - 0
FKJ
60%
22%
18%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 2025 |
AUD
1 - 3
BFC
58%
24%
18%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | +2 |