First State vs Alexandria Reds analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
26.2%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
0.1%
+3
2.9%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
7.4%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
14.7%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.2%
52.6%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
2.4%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
15.8%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
3.3%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
9%
0-4
2.3%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
First State
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jul. 2022 |
FST
1 - 2
GSU
77%
14%
10%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2022 |
FRE
4 - 3
FST
48%
21%
31%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 Jun. 2022 |
FST
1 - 1
VIR
36%
22%
42%
|
27 | 34 | 7 | +1 |
| 08 Jun. 2022 |
FST
2 - 2
FRE
47%
21%
32%
|
27 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2022 |
ALR
3 - 0
FST
69%
17%
14%
|
28 | 37 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Alexandria Reds
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jul. 2022 |
ALR
1 - 4
42%
22%
36%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
1 - 2
ALR
57%
21%
23%
|
37 | 41 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Jun. 2022 |
ALR
2 - 3
VIR
61%
19%
20%
|
38 | 34 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Jun. 2022 |
GSU
1 - 2
ALR
13%
17%
70%
|
37 | 21 | 16 | +1 |
| 04 Jun. 2022 |
ALR
3 - 0
FST
69%
17%
14%
|
37 | 28 | 9 | 0 |