Oberliga Hessen Round 27

FC Erlensee vs Fernwald analysis

FC Erlensee Fernwald
28 ELO 33
3.9% Tilt -11.6%
9446º General ELO ranking 4272º
458º Country ELO ranking 190º
ELO win probability
22.7%
FC Erlensee
20.1%
Draw
57.2%
Fernwald

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22.7%
Win probability
FC Erlensee
1.35
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.3%
2-0
2.6%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.3%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
13.2%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.1%
57.2%
Win probability
Fernwald
2.22
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
4.7%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.7%
0-2
7%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
2.6%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
17.1%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
10.3%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
FC Erlensee
-1%
+38%
Fernwald

Points and table prediction

FC Erlensee
Their league position
Fernwald
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
19º
10º
69
19º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Eintracht Frankfurt II
89
89
100%
FC Giessen
82
82
100%
Türkgücü Friedberg
70
70
100%
Fernwald
69
69
100%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
65
65
100%
KSV Baunatal
62
62
100%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
60
60
100%
FC Hanau 93
55
58
100%
SV Steinbach 1920
52
52
100%
FC Erlensee
10º
49
49
10º
70%
Eddersheim
11º
47
47
11º
52%
Bayern Alzenau
12º
47
47
12º
52%
Waldgirmes
13º
46
46
13º
52%
Adler Weidenhausen
14º
45
45
14º
100%
Viktoria Griesheim
15º
44
44
15º
100%
Dietkirchen
16º
41
41
16º
100%
Unter-Flockenbach
17º
40
40
17º
100%
Neuhof
19º
37
37
18º
0%
Rot-Weiß Hadamar
18º
37
37
19º
0%
TSV Steinbach Haiger II
20º
25
25
20º
100%
Expected probabilities
FC Erlensee
Fernwald
Promotion
0% 0%
Promotion play-offs
0% 0%
Mid-table
100% 100%
Relegation play-offs
0% 0%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

FC Erlensee
Fernwald
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

FC Erlensee
FC Erlensee
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
12 Mar. 2023
WAL
Waldgirmes
1 - 1
FC Erlensee
FCE
49%
22%
30%
26 24 2 0
04 Mar. 2023
FCE
FC Erlensee
2 - 1
Viktoria Griesheim
VIK
41%
21%
38%
24 26 2 +2
25 Feb. 2023
FCE
FC Erlensee
3 - 1
TSV Steinbach Haiger II
TSV
78%
13%
9%
23 17 6 +1
18 Feb. 2023
RWW
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
0 - 2
FC Erlensee
FCE
61%
20%
19%
22 28 6 +1
14 Feb. 2023
FVB
Bad Vilbel
2 - 1
FC Erlensee
FCE
25%
23%
53%
22 18 4 0

Matches

Fernwald
Fernwald
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
11 Mar. 2023
FER
Fernwald
2 - 0
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
EIN
61%
19%
21%
35 31 4 0
04 Mar. 2023
SUF
Unter-Flockenbach
0 - 1
Fernwald
FER
17%
18%
64%
34 22 12 +1
25 Feb. 2023
FER
Fernwald
4 - 1
Rot-Weiß Hadamar
ROT
84%
10%
6%
33 20 13 +1
11 Feb. 2023
SGB
Barockstadt
1 - 2
Fernwald
FER
64%
18%
18%
31 44 13 +2
01 Feb. 2023
FER
Fernwald
1 - 9
TSV Steinbach Haiger
STE
9%
14%
77%
31 54 23 0