Castiglione vs Savona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.5%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.8%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.2%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.1%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
38%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castiglione
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
FCC
2 - 1
FOR
28%
25%
47%
|
35 | 44 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2012 |
USA
0 - 1
FCC
64%
20%
16%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2012 |
FCC
1 - 0
SAN
47%
25%
28%
|
33 | 35 | 2 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
FAN
0 - 1
FCC
28%
24%
47%
|
33 | 23 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
FCC
6 - 0
MIL
62%
21%
17%
|
33 | 25 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Savona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
SAV
1 - 0
VIN
73%
18%
9%
|
42 | 30 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
FOR
1 - 1
SAV
50%
25%
25%
|
42 | 44 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2012 |
SAV
1 - 0
USA
56%
23%
21%
|
41 | 37 | 4 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
MIL
0 - 3
SAV
16%
23%
61%
|
40 | 24 | 16 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
SAV
2 - 2
MAN
49%
25%
26%
|
41 | 39 | 2 | -1 |