Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.4%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.4%
2-0
4%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.2%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
16%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
49.2%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.1%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
61
1º
10º
2º
72
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
54 | 54 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
53 | 53 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
53 | 53 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
51 | 51 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 41 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 28 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 100% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
YOB
1 - 0
FCA
77%
14%
9%
|
67 | 85 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 1
FCA
72%
17%
11%
|
67 | 85 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2024 |
FCA
3 - 3
KRI
69%
18%
13%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2024 |
OLT
0 - 5
FCA
4%
9%
87%
|
67 | 21 | 46 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2024 |
STA
4 - 3
FCA
32%
24%
45%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
THU
2 - 1
SOC
60%
21%
19%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
THU
0 - 0
ZUR
28%
24%
47%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
THU
0 - 1
YVE
46%
23%
31%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2024 |
THU
10 - 0
BAD
78%
15%
8%
|
76 | 52 | 24 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2024 |
THU
4 - 1
BRE
81%
13%
6%
|
76 | 50 | 26 | 0 |