Aarau vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
48.1%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
8%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
27.5%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2012 |
FCA
3 - 1
WIN
43%
25%
32%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
WIL
0 - 3
FCA
38%
26%
37%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 Aug. 2012 |
FCV
5 - 3
FCA
41%
25%
34%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | -1 |
| 29 Jul. 2012 |
FCA
0 - 0
CHI
66%
21%
13%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2012 |
FCA
1 - 1
LOC
65%
20%
16%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
LUG
4 - 1
WOH
58%
23%
19%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2012 |
LUG
3 - 1
FCV
45%
25%
30%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2012 |
LUG
0 - 0
LOC
62%
21%
17%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | -1 |
| 30 Jul. 2012 |
LUG
4 - 0
BIE
54%
23%
23%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 2012 |
BEL
3 - 1
LUG
53%
24%
24%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | 0 |