Farnborough vs Stevenage analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.6%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
31.5%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Farnborough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
RUG
2 - 3
FAR
18%
22%
60%
|
52 | 35 | 17 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2009 |
FAR
1 - 1
BAS
74%
17%
10%
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 2008 |
HEM
3 - 1
FAR
31%
26%
43%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | -2 |
| 20 Dec. 2008 |
SWI
1 - 1
FAR
25%
26%
49%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2008 |
FAR
3 - 1
WIN
77%
15%
8%
|
53 | 38 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Stevenage
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
STE
3 - 0
LEW
67%
19%
14%
|
53 | 43 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2009 |
RUS
1 - 1
STE
37%
27%
36%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2008 |
CAM
1 - 1
STE
45%
26%
29%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2008 |
STE
3 - 1
RUS
51%
24%
25%
|
52 | 52 | 0 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 2008 |
OXF
1 - 1
STE
41%
27%
32%
|
52 | 52 | 0 | 0 |