Eritrea vs Somalia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.1%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.2%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
46.2%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.7%
0-2
7%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14%
0-3
4%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.8%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec. 2001 |
RWA
1 - 0
ERI
82%
12%
6%
|
11 | 64 | 53 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2001 |
KEN
2 - 1
ERI
81%
13%
6%
|
11 | 70 | 59 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2000 |
ERI
1 - 1
RWA
18%
22%
60%
|
10 | 65 | 55 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 2000 |
KEN
0 - 0
ERI
81%
13%
7%
|
9 | 68 | 59 | +1 |
| 28 Oct. 2000 |
RWA
1 - 0
ERI
83%
11%
6%
|
9 | 62 | 53 | 0 |
Matches
Somalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec. 2001 |
KEN
3 - 0
SOM
81%
14%
6%
|
46 | 70 | 24 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2001 |
RWA
3 - 0
SOM
74%
16%
10%
|
46 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2000 |
SOM
0 - 3
BDI
57%
21%
23%
|
48 | 49 | 1 | -2 |
| 23 Nov. 2000 |
UGA
6 - 0
SOM
84%
12%
4%
|
48 | 76 | 28 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2000 |
SOM
1 - 2
ETH
16%
22%
62%
|
48 | 68 | 20 | 0 |