Ellerton vs BDF analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
8.2%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.7%
1-0
2.6%
2-1
2.5%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
6%
14.4%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.4%
77.4%
Win probability
2.59
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.5%
0-2
12.2%
1-3
7.6%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.8%
0-3
10.5%
1-4
4.9%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
16.5%
0-4
6.8%
1-5
2.6%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
9.8%
0-5
3.5%
1-6
1.1%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
4.8%
0-6
1.5%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0%
-6
2%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.7%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0.1%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+35%
-26%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ellerton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2018 |
EMP
5 - 0
ELL
55%
20%
25%
|
32 | 33 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2018 |
ELL
3 - 4
EMP
45%
22%
33%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2018 |
ELL
1 - 1
BRI
50%
22%
28%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2018 |
ELL
4 - 0
SSA
55%
20%
24%
|
32 | 28 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2018 |
BDF
2 - 2
ELL
57%
20%
24%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
BDF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2018 |
BDF
3 - 2
SAL
79%
14%
7%
|
50 | 35 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2018 |
WEY
2 - 1
BDF
48%
22%
30%
|
31 | 32 | 1 | +19 |
| 01 Jul. 2018 |
BRI
3 - 0
BDF
47%
23%
30%
|
31 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2018 |
BDF
0 - 1
PAR
56%
21%
23%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Jun. 2018 |
NOT
0 - 6
BDF
48%
22%
30%
|
32 | 31 | 1 | 0 |