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19 MAR 2016 14:00

Full-time

Duque de Caxias vs Itaborai analysis


42	ELO	47
-0.3%	Tilt	-9%
6115º	General ELO ranking	33203º
232º	Country ELO ranking	1054º
ELO win probability

40.2%

Duque de Caxias

24.3%

Draw

35.5%

Itaborai

Possible results

Probability of each exact result

Probability of handicap

40.2%
Win probability

                        
                    
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
6%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%

24.3%

Draw

0-0

1-1

11.2%

2-2

6.3%

3-3

1.6%

4-4

0.2%

5-5

<0%

24.3%

35.5%
Win probability

                        
                    
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.4%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →

ELO progression

Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Duque de Caxias

	1% X% 2%	ELO	ELO Cont.	▵ELO	±ELO
16 Mar. 2016	CER 0 - 1 DUQ 43% 27% 30%	43	44	1	0
12 Mar. 2016	DUQ 2 - 2 BAR 48% 24% 29%	43	41	2	0
05 Sep. 2015	DUQ 5 - 0 VIL 46% 26% 28%	41	44	3	+2
29 Aug. 2015	BOT 3 - 1 DUQ 75% 17% 8%	41	60	19	0
22 Aug. 2015	DUQ 1 - 2 GAM 22% 24% 54%	42	54	12	-1

Matches

Itaborai

	1% X% 2%	ELO	ELO Cont.	▵ELO	±ELO
16 Mar. 2016	ITA 1 - 0 CAM 68% 19% 13%	46	34	12	0
12 Mar. 2016	ANG 0 - 1 ITA 32% 24% 45%	45	40	5	+1