Derby County vs Man. City U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.4%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.3%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
20%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
18.5%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
STA
0 - 3
DER
36%
28%
36%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
DER
1 - 2
POR
53%
25%
22%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2022 |
MAN
1 - 1
DER
38%
25%
37%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
CAM
0 - 2
DER
33%
29%
38%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
DER
2 - 1
WYC
44%
27%
29%
|
69 | 67 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Man. City U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
MCI
1 - 3
BRO
70%
19%
11%
|
58 | 42 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
WOL
1 - 3
MCI
31%
25%
44%
|
57 | 49 | 8 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
MCI
1 - 0
FUL
59%
22%
18%
|
57 | 50 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
MCI
4 - 1
WHU
60%
22%
18%
|
56 | 47 | 9 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
MAN
3 - 2
MCI
57%
20%
23%
|
56 | 62 | 6 | 0 |