Derby County vs Man. City Sub 21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.2%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
19.4%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
STA
0 - 3
DER
35%
28%
37%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
DER
1 - 2
POR
50%
26%
24%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2022 |
MAN
1 - 1
DER
42%
25%
34%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
CAM
0 - 2
DER
34%
29%
37%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
DER
2 - 1
WYC
42%
27%
31%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Man. City Sub 21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
MCI
1 - 3
BRO
70%
19%
11%
|
54 | 39 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
WOL
1 - 3
MCI
31%
26%
44%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
MCI
1 - 0
FUL
59%
22%
18%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
MCI
4 - 1
WHU
61%
22%
17%
|
53 | 45 | 8 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
MAN
3 - 2
MCI
58%
20%
22%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | -1 |