Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.1%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.7%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.3%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.6%
28%
Draw
0-0
10.8%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
28%
46.9%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
14.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
-1
24.8%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
14%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 1988 |
COV
0 - 3
DER
71%
18%
11%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1988 |
DER
1 - 1
LIV
14%
26%
60%
|
72 | 91 | 19 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 1988 |
DER
1 - 1
CHA
56%
24%
20%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1988 |
TOT
0 - 0
DER
77%
15%
7%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1988 |
DER
1 - 0
WHU
39%
27%
34%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 1988 |
ARS
1 - 1
NEW
69%
20%
11%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1988 |
ARS
1 - 2
NTT
55%
25%
20%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1988 |
ARS
2 - 1
TOT
59%
24%
17%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1988 |
ARS
4 - 0
CHA
74%
18%
8%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1988 |
ARS
3 - 1
EVE
44%
28%
28%
|
87 | 89 | 2 | 0 |