BOL vs ARC Alphense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
45.3%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.4%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
6.9%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.3%
32.4%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
17%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-38%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
11º
16º
15º
32
2º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 54 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
51 | 51 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 46 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
52.5% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 42 |
8º
|
52.5% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 35 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
32 | 32 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
|
14º
|
32 | 32 |
14º
|
30.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
30 | 31 |
15º
|
69.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 20 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
30.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
69.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
BOL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
SWI
1 - 1
BOL
56%
23%
22%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
BOL
0 - 0
HUI
16%
21%
63%
|
38 | 51 | 13 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
BOL
2 - 0
HOL
23%
25%
52%
|
35 | 45 | 10 | +3 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
AJA
4 - 0
BOL
77%
15%
8%
|
35 | 48 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
BOL
1 - 2
SJC
33%
22%
46%
|
36 | 39 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
ARC Alphense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
SJC
4 - 2
ARC
60%
20%
20%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
ARC
0 - 1
DHS
72%
16%
12%
|
40 | 29 | 11 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
JOS
3 - 4
ARC
64%
20%
17%
|
38 | 45 | 7 | +2 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
ARC
1 - 2
AFC
43%
24%
33%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | -1 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
ARC
0 - 2
TER
35%
23%
41%
|
40 | 43 | 3 | -1 |