Choco vs CSD Arzua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
46.8%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.2%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
29.3%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
-64%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
1º
16º
16º
31
7º
15º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
61 | 61 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
46 | 46 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
45 | 45 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
41 | 41 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
41 | 41 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
39 | 39 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
38 | 38 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
37 | 37 |
11º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 37 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
37 | 37 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
15º
|
31 | 31 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
31 | 31 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
|
16º
|
15 | 15 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Choco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
EST
1 - 0
CHO
60%
22%
18%
|
23 | 28 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2022 |
CHO
1 - 1
ARO
16%
21%
63%
|
22 | 37 | 15 | +1 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
DEP
3 - 1
CHO
79%
14%
7%
|
22 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
CHO
1 - 3
UPH
56%
22%
22%
|
23 | 21 | 2 | -1 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
BAR
1 - 0
CHO
64%
20%
16%
|
24 | 29 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
CSD Arzua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
ARZ
2 - 1
ART
36%
24%
40%
|
22 | 24 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2022 |
SIL
3 - 0
ARZ
48%
24%
28%
|
24 | 24 | 0 | -2 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
ARZ
1 - 0
GRA
36%
25%
39%
|
23 | 26 | 3 | +1 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
VIV
2 - 0
ARZ
63%
20%
18%
|
23 | 27 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
ARZ
1 - 4
BOU
28%
26%
46%
|
25 | 34 | 9 | -2 |