BFC Daugavpils vs SK Super Nova analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
23.1%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
2º
6º
5º
17
6º
9º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
37 | 75 |
1º
|
52% | |
|
1º
|
39 | 74 |
2º
|
47% | |
|
3º
|
25 | 57 |
3º
|
39.5% | |
|
4º
|
22 | 57 |
4º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
21 | 47 |
5º
|
31% | |
|
8º
|
16 | 41 |
6º
|
18% | |
|
|
7º
|
17 | 40 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
6º
|
20 | 40 |
8º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 34 |
9º
|
25.5% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 32 |
10º
|
40% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
9% | 1.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
85% | 75% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
3.5% | 15% |
|
Relegation
|
2.5% | 8.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2025 |
FKJ
4 - 1
BFC
30%
28%
42%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
BFC
2 - 1
AUD
33%
26%
41%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
CAR
1 - 2
BFC
63%
23%
15%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 2
RIG
28%
25%
47%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2025 |
GRO
3 - 2
BFC
50%
24%
26%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
SK Super Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2025 |
SUP
1 - 1
GRO
46%
24%
31%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
FKJ
2 - 1
SUP
34%
27%
39%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 2025 |
FKT
2 - 2
SUP
50%
24%
27%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2025 |
AUD
1 - 0
SUP
63%
22%
15%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2025 |
SUP
4 - 0
FSM
42%
24%
34%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +2 |