Virsliga Normal Season Round 24

BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava analysis

BFC Daugavpils FS Jelgava
70 ELO 65
12.3% Tilt -3.4%
1811º General ELO ranking 2431º
Country ELO ranking 12º
ELO win probability
60.2%
BFC Daugavpils
22.3%
Draw
17.5%
FS Jelgava

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.2%
Win probability
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.6%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.3%
17.5%
Win probability
FS Jelgava
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
BFC Daugavpils
-10%
-6%
FS Jelgava

Points and table prediction

BFC Daugavpils
Their league position
FS Jelgava
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
27
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Riga FC
58
82
56%
FK RFS
55
79
56%
FK Auda
37
58
47.5%
FK Liepāja
35
56
39.5%
BFC Daugavpils
30
48
61%
FS Jelgava
27
39
37.5%
SK Super Nova
22
36
24.5%
FK Tukums 2000
21
36
21.5%
Grobiņa
20
34
29.5%
FK Metta
10º
17
30
10º
52.5%
Expected probabilities
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
Champions League qualifying phase
0% 0%
Conference League knock out round
4.5% 0%
Mid-table
94.5% 91.5%
Relegation play-offs
1% 4%
Relegation
0% 4.5%

ELO progression

BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
FK Liepāja
FK Metta
SK Super Nova
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
20 Jul. 2025
AUD
FK Auda
1 - 3
BFC Daugavpils
BFC
56%
24%
19%
69 77 8 0
17 Jul. 2025
BFC
BFC Daugavpils
2 - 4
Vllaznia
VLZ
62%
21%
18%
70 65 5 -1
13 Jul. 2025
FSL
Leevon PPK
2 - 4
BFC Daugavpils
BFC
6%
12%
82%
70 40 30 0
10 Jul. 2025
VLZ
Vllaznia
0 - 1
BFC Daugavpils
BFC
40%
25%
36%
69 65 4 +1
06 Jul. 2025
CAR
Riga FC
1 - 1
BFC Daugavpils
BFC
58%
24%
18%
69 77 8 0

Matches

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
20 Jul. 2025
FKJ
FS Jelgava
1 - 0
SK Super Nova
SUP
33%
27%
41%
64 68 4 0
12 Jul. 2025
FKJ
FS Jelgava
0 - 1
FK RFS
RIG
17%
20%
63%
65 77 12 -1
05 Jul. 2025
AUD
FK Auda
2 - 0
FS Jelgava
FKJ
62%
23%
15%
65 77 12 0
01 Jul. 2025
CAR
Riga FC
3 - 0
FS Jelgava
FKJ
63%
22%
15%
66 77 11 -1
26 Jun. 2025
FKJ
FS Jelgava
0 - 1
FK RFS
RIG
23%
25%
53%
66 77 11 0