BDF vs Paradise analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.3%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.9%
2-0
5%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.7%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.7%
34%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
4%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.1%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
10%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
-34%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
4º
10º
10º
29
5º
9º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
43 | 56 |
1º
|
88% | |
|
2º
|
33 | 46 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
3º
|
31 | 45 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
4º
|
31 | 45 |
4º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
29 | 43 |
5º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 42 |
6º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
22 | 38 |
7º
|
45% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 31 |
8º
|
67% | |
|
9º
|
13 | 24 |
9º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
10 | 23 |
10º
|
39% | |
|
10º
|
10 | 18 |
11º
|
60% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 7 |
12º
|
97% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
37% | 99.5% |
|
Relegation
|
63% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
BDF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2023 |
NOT
2 - 3
BDF
53%
19%
28%
|
25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2023 |
ELL
2 - 1
BDF
48%
21%
32%
|
25 | 29 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2023 |
BDF
0 - 4
WEY
48%
21%
30%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | -2 |
| 17 Feb. 2023 |
BDF
1 - 2
WOT
65%
17%
18%
|
27 | 25 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
BDF
0 - 2
EMP
58%
19%
24%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | -2 |
Matches
Paradise
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
PAR
1 - 2
EMP
56%
20%
24%
|
29 | 26 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2023 |
SAL
1 - 4
PAR
41%
21%
38%
|
29 | 26 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2023 |
PAR
4 - 3
BRI
50%
23%
27%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2023 |
SSA
1 - 7
PAR
22%
21%
57%
|
29 | 20 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2023 |
PAR
3 - 2
ELL
44%
22%
34%
|
28 | 29 | 1 | +1 |