Baza vs Carolinense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.2%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
23.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2004 |
ROC
2 - 0
BAZ
32%
27%
41%
|
44 | 35 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2004 |
BAZ
0 - 0
VAN
76%
17%
7%
|
45 | 26 | 19 | -1 |
| 18 Apr. 2004 |
G74
1 - 2
BAZ
50%
25%
25%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | +1 |
| 11 Apr. 2004 |
BAZ
2 - 1
NIJ
46%
25%
29%
|
43 | 43 | 0 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 2004 |
GUA
1 - 3
BAZ
27%
28%
45%
|
42 | 34 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Carolinense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2004 |
CAR
1 - 0
ALM
58%
22%
21%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2004 |
UDS
2 - 0
CAR
27%
28%
46%
|
41 | 30 | 11 | -2 |
| 18 Apr. 2004 |
CAR
1 - 2
MOT
40%
27%
34%
|
42 | 45 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 2004 |
MAR
0 - 0
CAR
19%
27%
54%
|
43 | 28 | 15 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 2004 |
CAR
3 - 1
SAN
66%
21%
13%
|
42 | 33 | 9 | +1 |