Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.9%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
19.2%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
3º
7º
5º
50
2º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 2023 |
NIC
1 - 2
BAS
42%
25%
33%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
1 - 1
YOB
37%
24%
39%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 2
NIC
46%
25%
29%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
ZUR
1 - 1
BAS
33%
25%
42%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 4
YOB
38%
24%
38%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
FCL
4 - 1
ZUR
40%
25%
35%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2023 |
WIN
1 - 2
FCL
27%
26%
47%
|
75 | 65 | 10 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
FCL
1 - 2
SIO
59%
23%
19%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
FCL
5 - 0
BEL
78%
15%
8%
|
76 | 53 | 23 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
ZUR
2 - 1
FCL
48%
24%
28%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |