Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.6%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.8%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
17.1%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
3º
7º
5º
50
2º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
STG
1 - 1
BAS
38%
24%
38%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2023 |
BVB
6 - 0
BAS
65%
19%
16%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
SCF
3 - 2
BAS
49%
24%
27%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2022 |
LAU
0 - 1
BAS
15%
21%
65%
|
84 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
BAS
0 - 0
SVS
79%
14%
7%
|
84 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
FCL
2 - 2
ZUR
39%
25%
36%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2023 |
BOC
1 - 1
FCL
45%
24%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
FCL
1 - 5
M05
32%
25%
43%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2022 |
STU
0 - 3
FCL
53%
23%
24%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2022 |
SCF
2 - 2
FCL
63%
21%
16%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | 0 |