Basel vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.7%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
15.2%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 2012 |
FLO
0 - 2
BAS
36%
24%
41%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2012 |
SER
0 - 1
BAS
24%
23%
54%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2012 |
BAS
1 - 2
YOB
56%
21%
22%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2012 |
SER
2 - 1
BAS
22%
22%
56%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2012 |
BAS
1 - 1
FCL
66%
18%
15%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2012 |
FCL
1 - 1
ZUR
45%
24%
31%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2012 |
SIO
1 - 3
FCL
38%
28%
34%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 May. 2012 |
FCL
0 - 1
THU
63%
22%
16%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2012 |
BAS
1 - 1
FCL
66%
18%
15%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2012 |
FCL
3 - 2
LAU
67%
20%
14%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |