Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
70.9%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.6%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18.5%
10.6%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2009 |
BAS
3 - 0
SCO
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2009 |
STG
2 - 0
BAS
27%
24%
49%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2009 |
BAS
0 - 3
YOB
45%
24%
31%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 May. 2009 |
GCZ
4 - 1
BAS
34%
25%
41%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2009 |
ZUR
1 - 3
BAS
41%
25%
33%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul. 2009 |
FCA
1 - 0
GCZ
28%
26%
46%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2009 |
FCA
2 - 0
FCV
63%
22%
15%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2009 |
NEX
3 - 1
FCA
56%
24%
20%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
FCA
0 - 1
YOB
20%
23%
57%
|
73 | 85 | 12 | -1 |
| 13 May. 2009 |
GCZ
1 - 1
FCA
60%
23%
17%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | +1 |