Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.7%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.7%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.2%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.9%
10.4%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.3%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2004 |
BAS
2 - 1
YOB
62%
20%
18%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2004 |
GCZ
0 - 2
BAS
48%
23%
30%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2004 |
NEX
3 - 1
BAS
28%
24%
48%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | -1 |
| 08 May. 2004 |
BAS
0 - 0
STG
68%
18%
14%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2004 |
THU
0 - 2
BAS
30%
24%
46%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2004 |
ZUR
4 - 1
FCA
53%
24%
23%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2004 |
FCA
1 - 2
THU
50%
25%
26%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 May. 2004 |
FCA
4 - 0
WIL
52%
24%
25%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 May. 2004 |
SER
1 - 1
FCA
61%
21%
18%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2004 |
FCA
0 - 1
YOB
33%
25%
42%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |