Baden vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.2%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.3%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
62.3%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
6.8%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19%
0-3
7%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.2%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.2%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
-19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
5º
10º
10º
43
3º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Baden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
NEX
1 - 1
BAD
58%
22%
20%
|
51 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
BAD
1 - 2
KRI
40%
22%
38%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
BAD
4 - 1
WOH
81%
12%
7%
|
51 | 32 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
BAD
0 - 2
THU
14%
20%
66%
|
52 | 68 | 16 | -1 |
| 08 Dec. 2023 |
SCH
2 - 0
BAD
55%
23%
21%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
FCV
45%
24%
31%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2024 |
ZUR
4 - 2
FCA
68%
18%
14%
|
64 | 82 | 18 | +1 |
| 10 Jan. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 3
FCA
66%
20%
15%
|
64 | 82 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2023 |
NEX
2 - 1
FCA
22%
23%
55%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 1
WIL
53%
23%
25%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | 0 |